Where the market is wrong on Fakel v Lokomotiv
Fakel meet Lokomotiv in the Premier League regular season - 10 at Fakel Stadium, Voronezh.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1477, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Lokomotiv, 48% against 35%. Attacking output favors Lokomotiv on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.1 per match.
Fakel arrive out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 4 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Spartak Moscow, D 2-2 v Baltika, L 1-3 @ FC Rostov, D 1-1 v FC Krasnodar.
Lokomotiv are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 3 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v Arsenal Tula, D 1-1 v Krylia Sovetov, L 1-2 @ Zenit, W 1-0 @ Baltika.
Lokomotiv hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 1 across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Fakel 0-1 Lokomotiv.
The market prices FAK at 35% implied. Our number sits apart on Lokomotiv: a 3.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 60 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
