Bournemouth v Sunderland

Bournemouth meet Sunderland in the Premier League regular season - 7 at Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth.

The baseline ratings are close, 1592 to 1569, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 65% against 57%. Attacking output favors Bournemouth on expected goals, 2.4 to 1.5 per match.

Bournemouth arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 10 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Liverpool, W 2-1 @ Real Sociedad, D 2-2 v Brentford, W 4-0 v Lincoln.

Sunderland are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 6 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 3-5 @ Manchester City, W 1-0 v AZ Alkmaar, L 0-2 v Arsenal, W 1-0 v Hull City.

The recent head-to-head is even, 2 apiece with 2 drawn across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Bournemouth 1-1 Sunderland.

The market prices BOU at 54% implied. Our number sits apart on Sunderland: a 6.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.