Where the market is wrong on Hull City v Aston Villa
Hull City meet Aston Villa in the Premier League regular season - 3 at MKM Stadium, Hull.
The baseline ratings are close, 1577 to 1489, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Hull City, 63% against 45%. Attacking output favors Aston Villa on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.3 per match.
Hull City arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 4 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Coventry, D 1-1 @ Stoke City, W 2-0 v Manchester United, D 0-0 v Nice.
Aston Villa are out of sorts: 0W-0D-5L from their last five (0/15 pts, 5 straight defeats), 3 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Arsenal, L 0-4 @ Brighton, L 1-2 @ Borussia Mönchengladbach, L 1-2 @ Paris Saint Germain.
Aston Villa hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 1 with 4 drawn across the last 8 meetings. Most recently they met in 2019: Aston Villa 2-2 Hull City.
The market prices HUL at 23% implied. Our number sits apart on Hull City: a 15.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 82 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
