Where the market is wrong on Brighton v Leeds
Brighton meet Leeds in the Premier League regular season - 3 at Amex Stadium, Brighton.
The baseline ratings are close, 1650 to 1615, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 68% against 68%. Attacking output favors Brighton on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.6 per match.
Brighton arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 12 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 3-4 @ Chelsea, W 4-0 v Tromso, W 4-0 v Aston Villa, D 0-0 @ Tromso.
Leeds are in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 9 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Brentford, W 2-0 @ Nottingham Forest, W 1-0 @ Nottingham Forest, W 4-0 v FC Augsburg.
Brighton hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 2 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Leeds 1-0 Brighton.
The market prices BRI at 49% implied. Our number sits apart on Leeds: a 9.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
