Where the market is wrong on AZ Alkmaar v Willem II
AZ Alkmaar meet Willem II in the Eredivisie regular season - 6 at AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar.
The baseline ratings are close, 1637 to 1625, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 71% against 66%. Attacking output favors AZ Alkmaar on expected goals, 2.4 to 1.4 per match.
AZ Alkmaar arrive surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 17 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 5-2 v GO Ahead Eagles, W 2-0 @ Fortuna Sittard, W 4-1 @ Utrecht, W 2-0 v ADO Den Haag.
Willem II are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 7 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Heerenveen, L 1-4 v NEC Nijmegen, L 1-4 @ GO Ahead Eagles, W 2-1 v OFI.
The market prices AZ at 83% implied. Our number sits apart on Willem II: a 23.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
