Where the market is wrong on Waalwijk v NAC Breda
Waalwijk meet NAC Breda in the Eerste Divisie regular season - 5 at Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk.
The baseline ratings are close, 1483 to 1454, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Waalwijk, 53% against 43%. Attacking output favors Waalwijk on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.4 per match.
Waalwijk arrive steady: 1W-4D-0L from their last five (7/15 pts), 10 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 4-2 v NAC Breda, D 2-2 v Jong PSV U21, D 1-1 @ Helmond Sport, D 2-2 v Dordrecht.
NAC Breda are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 9 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 2-4 @ Waalwijk, D 2-2 @ Roda, W 3-2 v Jong Ajax, L 0-2 v VVV Venlo.
Waalwijk hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 3 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Waalwijk 4-2 NAC Breda.
The market prices WAA at 33% implied. Our number sits apart on Waalwijk: a 10.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 79 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
