Parma v Monza

Parma meet Monza in the Serie A regular season - 3 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma.

Monza rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1569 to 1420. Recent form leans Monza, 60% against 40%. Attacking output favors Monza on expected goals, 1.9 to 0.7 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 40%, over 2.5 goals around 42%. Draw no bet leans Monza at 63%; double chance reads Parma or draw 56%, Monza or draw 74%.

Parma arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 3 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Juventus, L 0-1 v Cagliari, W 2-0 v Catania, L 0-2 v Sampdoria.

Monza are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 10 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 v Udinese, L 1-4 @ Inter, W 3-0 v Avellino, D 3-3 v Padova.

The market prices PAR at 39% implied. Our number sits apart on Monza: a 13.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 83 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.