AS Roma v Atalanta

AS Roma meet Atalanta in the Serie A regular season - 3 at Stadio Olimpico, Rome.

The baseline ratings are close, 1581 to 1569, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 60% against 60%. Attacking output favors AS Roma on expected goals, 2.2 to 1.3 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 63%, over 2.5 goals around 61%. Draw no bet leans AS Roma at 52%; double chance reads AS Roma or draw 66%, Atalanta or draw 63%.

AS Roma arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 14 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 4-0 @ Lecce, W 4-0 v Fiorentina, D 2-2 @ Borussia Dortmund, L 0-3 @ Brighton.

Atalanta are surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 5 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Bologna, W 1-0 @ Hapoel Tel Aviv, W 2-1 v Sassuolo, D 0-0 v Hapoel Tel Aviv.

Atalanta hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: AS Roma 1-1 Atalanta.

The market prices AS at 49% implied. Our number sits apart on Atalanta: a 10.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.