Atalanta v Sassuolo

Atalanta meet Sassuolo in the Serie A regular season - 1 at New Balance Arena, Bergamo.

The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1443, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Atalanta, 55% against 40%. Attacking output favors Atalanta on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.3 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 50%, over 2.5 goals around 45%. Draw no bet leans Atalanta at 53%; double chance reads Atalanta or draw 67%, Sassuolo or draw 64%.

Atalanta arrive surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 7 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Hapoel Tel Aviv, W 2-1 v Sassuolo, D 0-0 v Hapoel Tel Aviv, W 1-0 v Athletic Club.

Sassuolo are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 9 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Torino, L 1-2 @ Atalanta, W 3-0 v Cesena, L 2-3 @ FC Augsburg.

Atalanta hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 4 across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Atalanta 2-1 Sassuolo.

The market prices ATA at 62% implied. Our number sits apart on Sassuolo: a 16.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.