Where the market is wrong on Orsomarso v Depor FC
Orsomarso meet Depor FC in the Primera B clausura - 9 at Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata, Barrancabermeja.
The baseline ratings are close, 1420 to 1431, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 40% against 40%. Attacking output favors Depor FC on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.8 per match.
Orsomarso arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 3 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v Depor FC, L 0-2 v Tigres FC, L 0-1 v Real Cartagena, W 2-0 v Real Cundinamarca.
Depor FC are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 4 straight wins), 8 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ Orsomarso, W 1-0 @ Internacional Palmira, W 3-0 @ Leones FC, W 2-1 v Bogota FC.
The market prices ORS at 53% implied. Our number sits apart on Depor FC: a 12.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
