Where the market is wrong on Neftchi v Pakhtakor
Neftchi meet Pakhtakor in the Cup round of 16 at Istiqlol Stadium, Fergana.
The baseline ratings are close, 1707 to 1615, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Neftchi, 78% against 68%. Attacking output favors Neftchi on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.5 per match.
Neftchi arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 13 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Pakhtakor, W 3-0 v Sogdiana, L 1-4 @ Buxoro, W 3-0 @ Andijan.
Pakhtakor are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 6 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Neftchi, D 1-1 @ Dinamo Samarqand, D 0-0 v Surkhon, W 2-1 @ Nasaf.
Neftchi hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 4 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Neftchi 1-0 Pakhtakor.
The market prices NEF at 48% implied. Our number sits apart on Pakhtakor: a 3.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
