Tallinna Kalev v Maardu

Tallinna Kalev meet Maardu in the Esiliiga A regular season - 25 at Kadrioru Staadion, Tallinn.

The baseline ratings are close, 1565 to 1546, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 58% against 55%. Attacking output favors Tallinna Kalev on expected goals, 2.6 to 1.6 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 83%, over 2.5 goals around 92%. Draw no bet leans Tallinna Kalev at 62%; double chance reads Tallinna Kalev or draw 72%, Maardu or draw 54%.

Tallinna Kalev arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 14 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 v Maardu, W 3-0 @ Nõmme Kalju II, W 1-0 v Elva, W 8-0 v Tartu Kalev.

Maardu are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 9 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 @ Tallinna Kalev, L 0-1 @ Elva, W 1-0 v FC Tallinn, L 1-2 v Viimsi.

Tallinna Kalev hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 with 3 drawn across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Tallinna Kalev 1-3 Maardu.

The market prices TAL at 54% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.