North Texas v Austin II: the model read
North Texas meet Austin II in the MLS Next Pro group stage at Choctaw Stadium, undefined.
Austin II rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1730 to 1477. Recent form leans Austin II, 83% against 48%. Attacking output favors Austin II on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 44%, over 2.5 goals around 66%. Draw no bet leans Austin II at 72%; double chance reads North Texas or draw 47%, Austin II or draw 79%.
North Texas arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 5 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Minnesota United II, D 0-0 v Austin II, L 0-3 v Portland Timbers II, W 3-1 v Tacoma Defiance.
Austin II are in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts), 7 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v The Town, D 0-0 @ North Texas, W 4-1 v Vancouver Whitecaps II, W 1-0 v Sporting KC II.
Austin II hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 with 5 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: North Texas 0-0 Austin II.
The market prices NOR at 22% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 2.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 56 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
