Samgurali v Dila: the model read
Samgurali meet Dila in the Erovnuli Liga regular season - 25 at 26 May Stadium, Tsqaltubo.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 53%. Attacking output favors Samgurali on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.5 per match.
Samgurali arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 6 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 @ Torpedo Kutaisi, L 1-3 v Dila, L 1-2 @ FC Iberia 1999, D 1-1 v Rustavi.
Dila are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 9 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Dinamo Batumi, W 3-1 @ Samgurali, W 1-0 v Gagra, L 1-2 @ Dinamo Tbilisi.
The market prices SAM at 31% implied. Our number sits apart on Samgurali: a 1.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
