Where the market is wrong on Brann v Lillestrom
Brann meet Lillestrom in the Eliteserien regular season - 20 at Brann Stadion, Bergen.
The baseline ratings are close, 1581 to 1466, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Brann, 60% against 43%. Attacking output favors Brann on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.2 per match.
Brann arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 11 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Sandefjord, W 3-2 v PAOK, W 4-0 @ Fyllingen, D 1-1 @ PAOK.
Lillestrom are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 4 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-4 v Fredrikstad, W 2-1 v Egnatia Rrogozhinë, D 0-0 @ Egnatia Rrogozhinë, D 1-1 @ KFUM Oslo.
Brann hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 0 with 2 drawn across the last 8 meetings. Most recently they met in 2024: Brann 2-1 Lillestrom.
The market prices BRA at 51% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
