Where the market is wrong on Birmingham Legion v Sporting JAX
Birmingham Legion meet Sporting JAX in the USL Championship group stage at Protective Stadium, undefined.
The baseline ratings are close, 1466 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Birmingham Legion, 48% against 28%. Attacking output favors Birmingham Legion on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.2 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 58%, over 2.5 goals around 68%. Draw no bet leans Birmingham Legion at 64%; double chance reads Birmingham Legion or draw 74%, Sporting JAX or draw 54%.
Birmingham Legion arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 9 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 v Sporting JAX, L 2-3 @ Colorado Springs, W 1-0 v Rhode Island, L 1-2 @ Louisville City.
Sporting JAX are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 5 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 @ Birmingham Legion, L 0-1 v Indy Eleven, L 0-5 @ Sacramento Republic, L 0-2 @ El Paso Locomotive.
Sporting JAX hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Birmingham Legion 2-3 Sporting JAX.
The market prices BIR at 58% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 6.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output