United States v Belgium

United States meet Belgium in the FIFA World Cup 2026 round of 16 at Lumen Field, Seattle. The model makes Belgium the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 34% USA, 30% draw, 36% BEL.

The baseline ratings are close, 1870 to 1960, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 68% against 66%. Attacking output favors Belgium on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.6 per match.

Model score projection: most likely United States 0-1 Belgium, from expected goals of 1.3 to 1.5.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 57%, over 2.5 goals around 54%. Draw no bet leans Belgium at 52%; double chance reads United States or draw 64%, Belgium or draw 66%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.