Sweden v Tunisia

Sweden meet Tunisia in the FIFA World Cup 2026 group f at Estadio BBVA, Monterrey. The model makes Sweden the most likely outcome at 38%, with the full read 38% SWE, 31% draw, 31% TUN.

The baseline ratings are close, 1820 to 1790, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 62% against 58%. Attacking output favors Sweden on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.1 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Sweden 1-0 Tunisia, from expected goals of 1.4 to 1.0.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 48%, over 2.5 goals around 43%. Draw no bet leans Sweden at 55%; double chance reads Sweden or draw 69%, Tunisia or draw 62%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.