Spain v Belgium

Spain meet Belgium in the FIFA World Cup 2026 quarterfinal at SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles. The model makes Spain the most likely outcome at 42%, with the full read 42% ESP, 29% draw, 28% BEL.

Spain rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 2080 to 1960. Recent form leans Spain, 80% against 66%. Attacking output favors Spain on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.7 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Spain 1-0 Belgium, from expected goals of 1.9 to 1.0.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 55%, over 2.5 goals around 57%. Draw no bet leans Spain at 60%; double chance reads Spain or draw 72%, Belgium or draw 58%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.