Portugal v Uzbekistan

Portugal meet Uzbekistan in the FIFA World Cup 2026 group k at NRG Stadium, Houston. The model makes Portugal the most likely outcome at 47%, with the full read 47% POR, 28% draw, 24% UZB.

Portugal rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 2010 to 1750. Recent form leans Portugal, 74% against 58%. Attacking output favors Portugal on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.1 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Portugal 2-0 Uzbekistan, from expected goals of 2.3 to 0.8.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 48%, over 2.5 goals around 59%. Draw no bet leans Portugal at 66%; double chance reads Portugal or draw 76%, Uzbekistan or draw 53%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.