Portugal v Croatia

Portugal meet Croatia in the FIFA World Cup 2026 round of 32 at BMO Field, Toronto. The model makes Portugal the most likely outcome at 39%, with the full read 39% POR, 30% draw, 31% CRO.

The baseline ratings are close, 2010 to 1930, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 74% against 66%. Attacking output favors Portugal on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.5 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Portugal 1-0 Croatia, from expected goals of 1.7 to 1.1.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 55%, over 2.5 goals around 54%. Draw no bet leans Portugal at 56%; double chance reads Portugal or draw 69%, Croatia or draw 61%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.