Paraguay v Australia

Paraguay meet Australia in the FIFA World Cup 2026 group d at Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara. The model makes Paraguay the most likely outcome at 35%, with the full read 35% PAR, 31% draw, 33% AUS.

The baseline ratings are close, 1820 to 1810, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 64% against 62%. Attacking output favors Paraguay on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.3 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Paraguay 1-0 Australia, from expected goals of 1.2 to 1.1.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 47%, over 2.5 goals around 40%. Draw no bet leans Paraguay at 51%; double chance reads Paraguay or draw 67%, Australia or draw 65%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.