Netherlands v Sweden

Netherlands meet Sweden in the FIFA World Cup 2026 group f at NRG Stadium, Houston. The model makes Netherlands the most likely outcome at 41%, with the full read 41% NED, 30% draw, 29% SWE.

Netherlands rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 2000 to 1820. Recent form leans Netherlands, 72% against 62%. Attacking output favors Netherlands on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.4 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Netherlands 1-0 Sweden, from expected goals of 1.8 to 1.0.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 53%, over 2.5 goals around 53%. Draw no bet leans Netherlands at 59%; double chance reads Netherlands or draw 71%, Sweden or draw 59%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.