Iran v New Zealand

Iran meet New Zealand in the FIFA World Cup 2026 group g at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood. The model makes Iran the most likely outcome at 39%, with the full read 39% IRN, 31% draw, 29% NZL.

Iran rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1810 to 1690. Recent form separates little, 60% against 54%. Attacking output favors Iran on expected goals, 1.2 to 1.0 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Iran 1-0 New Zealand, from expected goals of 1.4 to 0.9.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 44%, over 2.5 goals around 40%. Draw no bet leans Iran at 57%; double chance reads Iran or draw 71%, New Zealand or draw 61%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.