Sporting Cristal v Union Comercio: the model read
Sporting Cristal meet Union Comercio in the Copa Bicentenario semi-finals at Estadio Miguel Grau del Callao, Callao. The model makes Union Comercio the most likely outcome at 40%, with the full read 28% SPO, 32% draw, 40% UNI.
The baseline ratings are close, 1454 to 1558, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Union Comercio, 57% against 43%. Attacking output favors Sporting Cristal on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 38%, over 2.5 goals around 35%. Draw no bet leans Union Comercio at 59%; double chance reads Sporting Cristal or draw 60%, Union Comercio or draw 72%.
Sporting Cristal arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 5 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ FBC Melgar, D 0-0 v RB Bragantino, W 1-0 v Deportivo Garcilaso, D 1-1 v Bentín Tacna Heroica.
Union Comercio are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 4 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Cesar Vallejo, L 0-2 @ Sporting Cristal, L 0-1 v Comerciantes, W 3-1 @ Estudiantil CNI.
Sporting Cristal hold the recent head-to-head, 8 wins to 2 across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Sporting Cristal 2-0 Union Comercio.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
