Fiorentina v Benfica: the model read
Fiorentina meet Benfica in the International Champions Cup group stage - 2 at Red Bull Arena, Harrison, New Jersey. The model makes Benfica the most likely outcome at 42%, with the full read 29% FIO, 29% draw, 42% BEN.
The baseline ratings are close, 1569 to 1650, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Benfica, 70% against 60%. Attacking output favors Benfica on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.5 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 62%, over 2.5 goals around 65%. Draw no bet leans Benfica at 59%; double chance reads Fiorentina or draw 58%, Benfica or draw 71%.
Fiorentina arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 14 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 @ QPR, W 1-0 v Gubbio, W 8-1 v Fiorentina U20, D 1-1 v Atalanta.
Benfica are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 12 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 5-1 v CF Os Belenenses, L 1-2 @ FC ST. Gallen, W 2-0 v Villarreal, L 1-2 v Flamengo.
Benfica hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2019: Fiorentina 1-2 Benfica.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
