Where the market is wrong on Leatherhead v Hanworth Villa
Leatherhead meet Hanworth Villa in the FA Cup 3rd round qualifying.
Hanworth Villa rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1753 to 1615. Recent form leans Hanworth Villa, 83% against 68%. Attacking output favors Hanworth Villa on expected goals, 2.4 to 1.9 per match.
Leatherhead arrive in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 8 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Ramsgate, D 3-3 @ Three Bridges, W 1-0 @ Kingstonian, D 0-0 v Whyteleafe.
Hanworth Villa are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 4 straight wins), 15 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Chichester City, W 3-2 v Bishop's Stortford, W 2-1 @ Berkhamsted, W 6-0 @ Pagham.
Leatherhead hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 1 with 3 drawn across the last 8 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Hanworth Villa 3-3 Leatherhead.
The market prices LEA at 41% implied. Our number sits apart on Hanworth Villa: a 10.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 80 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
