Where the market is wrong on Sunderland v Brentford
Sunderland meet Brentford in the League Cup round of 16 at Stadium of Light, Sunderland.
The baseline ratings are close, 1569 to 1558, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 57% against 63%. Attacking output favors Brentford on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.5 per match.
Sunderland arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 6 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 3-5 @ Manchester City, W 1-0 v AZ Alkmaar, L 0-2 v Arsenal, W 1-0 v Hull City.
Brentford are in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 9 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Chelsea, W 2-1 @ Reading, D 2-2 @ Bournemouth, D 1-1 v Sunderland.
Brentford hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 with 2 drawn across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Brentford 1-1 Sunderland.
The market prices SUN at 36% implied. Our number sits apart on Brentford: a 7.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 71 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
