Where the market is wrong on Bournemouth v Aston Villa
Bournemouth meet Aston Villa in the League Cup round of 16 at Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth.
The baseline ratings are close, 1592 to 1523, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Bournemouth, 65% against 50%. Attacking output favors Bournemouth on expected goals, 2.4 to 2.0 per match.
Bournemouth arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 10 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Liverpool, W 2-1 @ Real Sociedad, D 2-2 v Brentford, W 4-0 v Lincoln.
Aston Villa are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 10 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 @ Tottenham, W 3-1 @ Coventry, L 1-2 v Nottingham Forest, W 3-2 @ Club Brugge KV.
Aston Villa hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Bournemouth 1-1 Aston Villa.
The market prices BOU at 40% implied. Our number sits apart on Bournemouth: a 3.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 61 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
