Olimpia and Sportivo Luqueno drew 1-1 at Estadio Osvaldo Dominguez Dibb.
How it unfolded: 55' O. Ruiz (SPO), 68' M. Gamarra (OLI), 121' G. Bogado (SPO pen), 122' L. Comas (SPO pen), 123' J. F. Alfaro (OLI pen), 123' M. Perez (SPO pen), 124' E. Delmas (OLI pen), 124' T. Muro (SPO pen).
The model leaned Olimpia at 47% and the match went the other way. It priced this outcome at 28%, so the result sits within the model's own uncertainty, but it goes in the ledger as a miss.
Score projection: the model's most likely scoreline was Olimpia 2-0 Sportivo Luqueno; the match finished 1-1.
Ledger entry: the published 12.5-point edge on Sportivo Luqueno did not land. Logged in the open, as every edge is.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output and real match data