Where the market is wrong on Cerro v Deportivo Maldonado
Cerro meet Deportivo Maldonado in the Copa Uruguay group stage - 3.
Deportivo Maldonado rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1661 to 1466. Recent form leans Deportivo Maldonado, 73% against 43%. Attacking output favors Deportivo Maldonado on expected goals, 1.6 to 0.8 per match.
Cerro arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Juventud, L 1-2 v Deportivo Maldonado, L 1-2 v Penarol, W 3-1 @ Progreso.
Deportivo Maldonado are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 10 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ Atletico Torque, W 2-1 @ Cerro, W 2-0 v Cerro Largo, L 0-1 @ Defensor Sporting.
Deportivo Maldonado hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 1 with 2 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Cerro 1-2 Deportivo Maldonado.
The market prices CER at 25% implied. Our number sits apart on Deportivo Maldonado: a 4.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 66 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
