Where the market is wrong on Cerro Largo v Rentistas
Cerro Largo meet Rentistas in the Copa Uruguay group stage - 3.
The baseline ratings are close, 1420 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Rentistas, 55% against 40%. Attacking output favors Rentistas on expected goals, 1.2 to 0.8 per match.
Cerro Largo arrive out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 2 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v Club Nacional, L 0-2 @ Deportivo Maldonado, D 0-0 v Central Espanol, D 1-1 v Defensor Sporting.
Rentistas are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 8 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 @ Uruguay Montevideo, L 0-2 v Oriental, W 2-1 v Plaza Colonia, W 1-0 @ Colón.
Cerro Largo hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 2 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2022: Cerro Largo 2-1 Rentistas.
The market prices CER at 61% implied. Our number sits apart on Rentistas: a 20.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
