Where the market is wrong on Progreso v Club Nacional
Progreso meet Club Nacional in the Copa Uruguay group stage - 3.
Club Nacional rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1592 to 1400. Recent form leans Club Nacional, 63% against 25%. Attacking output favors Club Nacional on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.7 per match.
Progreso arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 4 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Club Nacional, L 1-3 v Cerro, W 1-0 @ Albion FC, L 1-2 @ Albion FC.
Club Nacional are in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts), 8 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Progreso, D 1-1 @ Wanderers, D 2-2 v Juventud, W 3-2 @ CA River Plate.
Club Nacional hold the recent head-to-head, 8 wins to 0 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Progreso 0-1 Club Nacional.
The market prices PRO at 19% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 6.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
