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Report partita
Lillestrom beat Bærum 5-1.
How it unfolded: 16' S. Foss (LIL), 44' G. Nyheim (LIL), 67' Felix Va (LIL), 69' S. Ottesen (LIL), 75' Y. Paintsil (LIL), 84' A. Dacic (BÆR).
The model leaned Bærum at 42% and the match went the other way. It priced this outcome at 31%, so the result sits within the model's own uncertainty, but it goes in the ledger as a miss.
Score projection: the model's most likely scoreline was Bærum 3-2 Lillestrom; the match finished 1-5.
Ledger entry: the published 38.0-point edge on Bærum did not land. Logged in the open, as every edge is.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output and real match data