Where the market is wrong on CF Talavera v Navalcarnero
CF Talavera meet Navalcarnero in the Copa Federacion round of 32 at Estadio El Prado, Talavera de la Reina.
The baseline ratings are close, 1454 to 1466, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 45% against 43%. Attacking output favors Navalcarnero on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.8 per match.
CF Talavera arrive out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 1 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Real Madrid III, L 0-2 v Navalcarnero, L 0-3 @ RSD Alcalá, L 0-1 v Getafe II.
Navalcarnero are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 7 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Real Ávila, W 2-0 @ CF Talavera, L 0-1 @ Real Valladolid II, W 3-1 v Fuenlabrada.
The market prices CF at 50% implied. Our number sits apart on Navalcarnero: a 9.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 75 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
