Where the market is wrong on Alianza v CD Motagua
Alianza meet CD Motagua in the CONCACAF Central American Cup quarter-finals.
The baseline ratings are close, 1522 to 1581, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans CD Motagua, 63% against 53%. Attacking output favors CD Motagua on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.2 per match.
Alianza arrive steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 6 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v CD Motagua, L 0-3 @ CD Motagua, D 2-2 @ Águila, W 2-0 v Atletico Balboa.
CD Motagua are in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 6 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Alianza, W 1-0 v Génesis, W 3-0 v Alianza, D 0-0 @ Atletico Independiente.
CD Motagua hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 2 drawn across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Alianza 0-0 CD Motagua.
The market prices ALI at 39% implied. Our number sits apart on CD Motagua: a 8.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 73 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
