Where the market is wrong on Al Sadd v Al-Gharafa
Al Sadd meet Al-Gharafa in the Qatar Cup semi-finals at Khalifa International Stadium, Al Rayyan.
Al Sadd rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1625 to 1408. Recent form leans Al Sadd, 66% against 35%. Attacking output favors Al Sadd on expected goals, 2.6 to 1.3 per match.
Al Sadd arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 4 straight wins), 13 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Al-Gharafa, W 6-2 @ Qatar SC, W 3-1 v Al Ahli Doha, W 1-0 @ Trabzonspor.
Al-Gharafa are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 7 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Al Sadd, L 1-3 v Al Shamal, W 2-1 v Al Shahaniya, D 2-2 @ Al Riyadh.
Al Sadd hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 1 with 3 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Al Sadd 2-1 Al-Gharafa.
The market prices AL at 61% implied. Our number sits apart on Al-Gharafa: a 7.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
