Where the market is wrong on Santos v Atletico-MG
Santos meet Atletico-MG in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana quarter-finals at MRV Arena, Belo Horizonte.
The baseline ratings are close, 1598 to 1637, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 64% against 71%. Attacking output favors Santos on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.4 per match.
Santos arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 5 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Corinthians, L 0-3 @ Palmeiras, D 1-1 v Mirassol, D 0-0 @ Macara.
Atletico-MG are in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 7 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Cruzeiro, W 2-1 v Vitoria, D 1-1 @ Cruzeiro, D 0-0 @ Internacional.
Atletico-MG hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Santos 1-0 Atletico-MG.
The market prices SAN at 45% implied. Our number sits apart on Atletico-MG: a 9.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 76 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
