Where the market is wrong on Palermo v Mantova
Palermo meet Mantova in the Coppa Italia round of 32 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Palermo.
The baseline ratings are close, 1592 to 1661, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 63% against 70%. Attacking output favors Mantova on expected goals, 2.2 to 1.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 64%, over 2.5 goals around 65%. Draw no bet leans Mantova at 56%; double chance reads Palermo or draw 61%, Mantova or draw 68%.
Palermo arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 8 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 @ Arezzo, W 1-0 v Juve Stabia, W 2-0 v Lecce, L 0-2 @ Juventus.
Mantova are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 10 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 v Empoli, W 2-1 @ Carrarese, W 2-0 @ Lazio, L 0-1 v Athletic Carpi.
Palermo hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 3 drawn across the last 4 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Palermo 2-1 Mantova.
The market prices PAL at 57% implied. Our number sits apart on Mantova: a 20.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 82 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
