Where the market is wrong on Cagliari v Hellas Verona
Cagliari meet Hellas Verona in the Coppa Italia round of 32 at Unipol Domus, Cagliari.
The baseline ratings are close, 1500 to 1420, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Cagliari, 50% against 38%. Attacking output favors Hellas Verona on expected goals, 1.2 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 32%, over 2.5 goals around 24%. Draw no bet leans Hellas Verona at 51%; double chance reads Cagliari or draw 66%, Hellas Verona or draw 68%.
Cagliari arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 4 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Inter, W 1-0 @ Parma, W 1-0 v Arezzo, D 0-0 v Nice.
Hellas Verona are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 8 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Padova, L 1-2 v Ascoli, D 2-2 v Virtus Entella, W 3-0 v Lecco.
The recent head-to-head is even, 3 apiece with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Cagliari 4-0 Hellas Verona.
The market prices CAG at 48% implied. Our number sits apart on Hellas Verona: a 10.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 76 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
