Where the market is wrong on Derthona v Imperia
Derthona meet Imperia in the Serie D - Girone A group a - 2.
The baseline ratings are close, 1431 to 1466, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 40% against 48%. Attacking output favors Imperia on expected goals, 1.0 to 0.8 per match.
Derthona arrive steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 4 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Imperia, W 1-0 @ Celle Varazze, L 1-2 v Gozzano, D 1-1 @ Saluzzo.
Imperia are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 3 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Derthona, W 1-0 v Millesimo, L 1-2 @ Pro Patria, L 0-1 v Celle Varazze.
Derthona hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 1 with 2 drawn across the last 7 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Derthona 1-1 Imperia.
The market prices DER at 29% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output