Where the market is wrong on Deportivo Maldonado v Penarol
Deportivo Maldonado meet Penarol in the Primera División clausura - 3.
The baseline ratings are close, 1604 to 1553, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 65% against 58%. Attacking output favors Deportivo Maldonado on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.5 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 44%, over 2.5 goals around 38%. Draw no bet leans Deportivo Maldonado at 51%; double chance reads Deportivo Maldonado or draw 67%, Penarol or draw 65%.
Deportivo Maldonado arrive steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 4 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Penarol, W 2-0 @ Progreso, D 2-2 v Racing Montevideo, D 0-0 v Juventud.
Penarol are surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 13 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Deportivo Maldonado, W 2-1 v Central Espanol, W 5-1 v Wanderers, W 3-0 v Cerro Largo.
Penarol hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 0 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Deportivo Maldonado 0-0 Penarol.
The market prices DEP at 25% implied. Our number sits apart on Deportivo Maldonado: a 10.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 76 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
