Where the market is wrong on Pafos v Dinamo Tirana
Pafos meet Dinamo Tirana in the UEFA Europa Conference League playoff round at Alphamega Stadium, Limassol.
The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1546, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 55% against 55%. Attacking output favors Pafos on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.6 per match.
Pafos arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 11 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 @ Karmiotissa, W 4-2 v Dinamo Tirana, D 1-1 @ Dinamo Tirana, D 3-3 v Red Bull Salzburg.
Dinamo Tirana are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 8 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Skenderbeu Korce, L 2-4 @ Pafos, L 0-1 v Vora, D 1-1 v Pafos.
The market prices PAF at 74% implied. Our number sits apart on Dinamo Tirana: a 25.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
