Where the market is wrong on Ajax v FC Sion
Ajax meet FC Sion in the UEFA Europa Conference League playoff round at Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam.
The baseline ratings are close, 1673 to 1650, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 75% against 70%. Attacking output favors FC Sion on expected goals, 3.0 to 2.3 per match.
Ajax arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 17 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 4-0 @ Telstar, W 5-3 v FC Sion, W 4-2 @ FC Sion, D 2-2 v Heerenveen.
FC Sion are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 14 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v FC Lugano, L 3-5 @ Ajax, L 2-4 v Ajax, W 6-1 @ Kerzers.
Ajax hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Ajax 5-3 FC Sion.
The market prices AJA at 72% implied. Our number sits apart on FC Sion: a 24.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
