Where the market is wrong on Hapoel Tel Aviv v Atalanta
Hapoel Tel Aviv meet Atalanta in the UEFA Europa Conference League playoff round at DVTK Stadion, Miskolc.
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1569, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Atalanta, 60% against 50%. Attacking output favors Atalanta on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 37%, over 2.5 goals around 30%. Draw no bet leans Atalanta at 56%; double chance reads Hapoel Tel Aviv or draw 62%, Atalanta or draw 70%.
Hapoel Tel Aviv arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 3 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Hapoel Haifa, L 0-1 v Atalanta, D 0-0 @ Atalanta, W 2-1 @ Ironi Kiryat Shmona.
Atalanta are surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 5 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Bologna, W 1-0 @ Hapoel Tel Aviv, W 2-1 v Sassuolo, D 0-0 v Hapoel Tel Aviv.
Atalanta hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Hapoel Tel Aviv 0-1 Atalanta.
The market prices HAP at 15% implied. Our number sits apart on Hapoel Tel Aviv: a 14.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
