Where the market is wrong on Celtiga v Estradense
Celtiga meet Estradense in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 group 1 - 4.
Estradense rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1523 to 1400. Recent form leans Estradense, 53% against 33%. Attacking output favors Estradense on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.2 per match.
Celtiga arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 7 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Estradense, L 2-3 @ Villalbés, L 0-2 v Boiro, D 1-1 @ Silva.
Estradense are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 5 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Celtiga, W 3-1 v Coruña, D 1-1 @ Atlético Arteixo, L 1-3 v Sarriana.
Celtiga hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Celtiga 2-0 Estradense.
The market prices CEL at 26% implied. Our number sits apart on Celtiga: a 4.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
