Where the market is wrong on Atletico-MG v RB Bragantino
Atletico-MG meet RB Bragantino in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana round of 16 at Arena MRV, Belo Horizonte.
The baseline ratings are close, 1601 to 1589, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 66% against 63%. Attacking output favors RB Bragantino on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 34%, over 2.5 goals around 25%. Draw no bet leans RB Bragantino at 51%; double chance reads Atletico-MG or draw 66%, RB Bragantino or draw 67%.
Atletico-MG arrive in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 8 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Internacional, D 2-2 v RB Bragantino, W 3-0 v Gremio, W 1-0 @ RB Bragantino.
RB Bragantino are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 4 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Gremio, D 2-2 @ Atletico-MG, D 1-1 @ Atletico Paranaense, L 0-1 v Atletico-MG.
The market prices ATL at 39% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 56 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output