Where the market is wrong on Independiente De Chivilcoy v Tucuman Central
Independiente De Chivilcoy meet Tucuman Central in the Torneo Federal A losers stage - 5 at Raul Orlando Lungarzo, Chivilcoy.
The baseline ratings are close, 1431 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Independiente De Chivilcoy, 43% against 30%. Attacking output favors Tucuman Central on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 32%, over 2.5 goals around 24%. Draw no bet leans Independiente De Chivilcoy at 53%; double chance reads Independiente De Chivilcoy or draw 69%, Tucuman Central or draw 65%.
Independiente De Chivilcoy arrive steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 5 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Tucuman Central, D 0-0 @ Sportivo Las Parejas, L 1-2 v Sarmiento Resistencia, D 1-1 @ Boca Unidos.
Tucuman Central are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 8 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Boca Unidos, L 0-2 @ Independiente De Chivilcoy, L 2-3 v Atletico Escobar, L 3-4 @ Defensores de Vilelas.
The market prices IND at 66% implied. Our number sits apart on Tucuman Central: a 20.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
