Where the market is wrong on Maria da Fonte v Celoricense
Maria da Fonte meet Celoricense in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A group a - 2.
Celoricense rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1558 to 1431. Recent form leans Celoricense, 60% against 38%. Attacking output favors Maria da Fonte on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 25%, over 2.5 goals around 25%. Draw no bet leans Celoricense at 64%; double chance reads Maria da Fonte or draw 58%, Celoricense or draw 76%.
Maria da Fonte arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts), 2 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Celoricense, W 1-0 @ Vinhais, L 0-2 @ Fafe, L 1-2 v Brito.
Celoricense are in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts), 4 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Maria da Fonte, D 0-0 v Montalegre, W 2-1 @ Camacha, D 0-0 v Machico.
The market prices MAR at 32% implied. Our number sits apart on Celoricense: a 5.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 65 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
