Septemvri Simitli v Kostinbrod: the model read
Septemvri Simitli meet Kostinbrod in the Third League - Southwest southwest - 1 at National Stadium Vasil Levski, Sofia. The model makes Septemvri Simitli the most likely outcome at 39%, with the full read 39% SEP, 32% draw, 29% KOS.
The baseline ratings are close, 1558 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 55% against 53%. Attacking output favors Septemvri Simitli on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.2 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 40%, over 2.5 goals around 36%. Draw no bet leans Septemvri Simitli at 57%; double chance reads Septemvri Simitli or draw 71%, Kostinbrod or draw 61%.
Septemvri Simitli arrive surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 12 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 @ Belasica, W 2-0 v Kyustendil, D 0-0 @ Septemvri Sofia II, W 4-1 v Kostinbrod.
Kostinbrod are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 4 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ CSKA Sofia III, W 2-1 v Levski Sofia II, L 1-4 @ Septemvri Simitli, D 1-1 v Slivnishki geroy.
The recent head-to-head is even, 2 apiece with 2 drawn across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Septemvri Simitli 4-1 Kostinbrod.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
